End the duopoly

Trump is now the underdog. Here’s why.


If the presidential election were held in May, President Trump would lose.

Election day isn’t until November, of course, and anyone doubting that the outcome can shift in 5½ months need only think about how much has changed in the past 2½.

But that doesn’t make the current status of the campaign irrelevant. It’s one thing to say that the incumbent can catch up — he certainly can — it’s another to ignore the increasingly strong evidence that Joe Biden , the presumptive Democratic nominee, has a clear lead.

As economic restrictions start to lift around the country and campaigns slowly resume — Trump has visited three swing states in the past three weeks and says he wants to start holding rallies again soon — a look at where the race stands can help explain the divergent paths the two candidates are taking.

Polls provide a clear signal The message comes consistently from a wide range of surveys: The Real Clear Politics website has cataloged nationwide polls released since the start of 2020; Trump […]

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