End the duopoly

The most important economic question right now: Morning Brief

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Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. How strong is the labor market?

As the third quarter nears its end, investors, workers, lawmakers, and central bankers are all pondering the next phase of this pandemic-induced economic cycle.

And one question more than any other sets a baseline for what happens next in the U.S. economy: how strong is the labor market?

Earlier this month, the August jobs report came in stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls grew by more than 1.3 million. The unemployment rate fell to 8.4%. This report still showed, however, that total job losses since the pandemic began are in excess of 11 million. One better-than-forecast report does not take away from a deeply altered employment picture in just a few short months.

But a note to clients published Monday, Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics posits that the labor market might be in better shape than headline data suggests. And he argues that this could have huge implications for the future of economic growth in the U.S. and how Federal Reserve policy unfolds in the coming years.“With initial jobless claims still running at close to […]

read more here —> finance.yahoo.com

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