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The Beatings Will Continue Until The Economy Improves

AFP via Getty Images You can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, and the lights will turn on when you flip the switch.

In fact, you could argue this “predictability” is what separates advanced economies from primitive ones. Most of us don’t have to worry about being attacked in our sleep or having food tomorrow. That security frees us to do other things.

Right now, some basic assumptions are no longer safe. For example, we can’t travel or even go to a restaurant or visit friends without wondering about our health.

The economy will keep suffering until our assumptions are reliable again. Otherwise, we will have to replace them with new assumptions. In the long run (after The Great Reset in the late 2020s), I still foresee a wonderful new world. But we have to get there first.

Economists use the word “recovery” to define a rebound from the previous time period. So if there was a 30% drop, a 10% increase would, for an economist, be a “recovery.” But in the real world, it still means you are 20% below where you started.

Recovery doesn’t necessarily mean recovered . Even optimistic […]

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