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Good Omen for Markets: Recent Big Economic Surprises

Recent economic surprises are narrowing the gap between a languishing real economy and a U.S. stock market that keeps climbing. Investors, ironically, are at the same time growing increasingly skittish.

Consider two sentiment polls this past week. Bank of America ’s June Fund Manager Survey indicated a majority believe we’re still in a bear-market rally (even if the bear market has technically been erased).

A weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, meanwhile, showed expectations for stock prices to fall over the next six months outpacing expectations for stock prices to rise by about 2-to-1.

It makes sense that investors would be skeptical about how quickly the market has run from March lows, given that more than 20 million Americans remain unemployed, corporate earnings are collapsing, and coronavirus cases are back on the rise.

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