The economy has been a major factor in determining the outcome of presidential elections throughout U.S. history. That will clearly continue to be the case in this 2020 presidential election cycle, although I certainly think there are unusual factors challenging the economy for salience in voters’ minds this year. Additionally, the perceived state of the national economy and the candidates’ economic proposals are likely going to have their most important effects on turnout among supporters of the two major candidates — and not so much in terms of actually changing voters’ minds.
The economy remains relatively low in rank order when Americans are asked to name the most important problem facing the nation today. Our latest Gallup report concluded: “Relatively few Americans, 12%, say any economic troubles, including the economy in general terms, unemployment or economic inequality, are the most important problem facing the country.” This contrasted with 35% who named the pandemic and 22% who mentioned the government as the most important problem. (This report was based on Gallup’s August update, but preliminary data from Gallup’s not-yet-released September polling shows little change from these basic findings.)
But then we have this update from a recent Kaiser Family Foundation report on […]
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